Supply Chain Resilience

Gaurav solely did the Supply Chain Resilience for a coconut drink bottle which had 9 nodes in the supply chain. Gaurav found the vulnerability of each node using Complex Network Theory Analysis, Failure Probability using Monte Carlo Simulation and Posterior Probability using Bayes Theorem. Gaurav used Excel for all calculations. Gaurav found the results as Failure Probability to be around 4% which is pretty low and expected and the vulnerability to be close to 70% maximum for a particular node.

Supply Chain Network created close to existing chain for coconut drink

Performance Function is created and simulated for 5000 cycles in excel to find failure probability and this method is Monte Carlo Simulation

Failure Probability graph

Complex Network Analysis is used to find the vulnerability and efficiency of each node.

Bayes Theorem is used to find initial success probability of each node

Gaurav simulated a psuedo shutdown on one of the nodes and then used Bayes theorem to find the posterior probability of the output nodes.